Alex Michelsen vs Daniel Merida Aguilar Prediction U.S. Open - New York · Sep 4, 2026

Analysis

Both men arrive in excellent shape: Michelsen swept Federico Cina 3-0 on 31 August, while Merida Aguilar was equally ruthless in a 3-0 win over Marton Fucsovics on 30 August, so neither has spent unnecessary time on court. The separator here is surface fit. Michelsen is an American hard-court product whose flat, early-struck ball and heavy first serve are tailored to the quick New York conditions, and he plays in front of a home crowd that has watched him grow up on this stage. Merida Aguilar's game is built on the heavier, more attritional rhythm of slower surfaces, and while his straight-sets win shows the level is there, he has to generate his own pace against an opponent who thrives on redirecting it. Over best-of-five the better server and the more surface-native game usually tell, but a third-round match at this stage rarely passes without one competitive set. A 3-1 for Michelsen is the most natural landing spot.