Matteo Berrettini vs Brandon Nakashima Prediction Shanghai Rolex Masters - Shanghai · Oct 9, 2026

Analysis

Berrettini arrives with the better immediate form, having come through his Shanghai opener 2-1 against Aleksandar Kovacevic on 7 October, so he already has match sharpness in these conditions. His recent run also includes a 2-1 win over Alejandro Davidovich Fokina and a 3-0 result against Stan Wawrinka, though the 0-2 defeat to Adolfo Daniel Vallejo shows the level can dip when his serve is not firing. Nakashima's last outing was a 2-1 win over Jakub Mensik, but before that he was beaten 0-2 by Ugo Humbert, and his clean, flat baseline game gives him fewer free points than the Italian on a quick hard court. The matchup is a classic contrast: Berrettini's serve-and-forehand pressure against Nakashima's compact return game and depth of ball, which is exactly the profile that drags big hitters into long rallies. Humid Shanghai nights slow the ball slightly and reward the better mover, which keeps Nakashima live in any set he can extend. On balance the serve edge and the extra match under his belt tip it to Berrettini, but a deciding set is close to a coin flip.