Predicted winnerRafael Jodar1 – 2Predicted sets · best of 3
Alejandro Davidovich Fokina · 50%Win probability50% · Rafael Jodar
Analysis
This is an all-Spanish Shanghai final between two men riding the best week of their season. Davidovich Fokina has done it the hard way, grinding past Hubert Hurkacz 2-1 and then Alexander Zverev 2-1 in the semi-final, which shows his competitiveness but also means a heavy workload in his legs. Jodar looks the fresher of the pair after closing out Daniil Medvedev 2-0, a result that followed three-set wins over Casper Ruud, Jiri Lehecka and Thiago Agustin Tirante. On a quick Shanghai hard court the flatter, first-strike baseline patterns are rewarded, while Davidovich Fokina's variety, drop shots and elastic defence are built to break up an opponent's rhythm. With no head-to-head data available, we lean marginally to Jodar on freshness and the manner of his semi-final win, but the margin is thin. Expect a tense, momentum-swinging final that is more likely than not to need a decider.
Who is favourite to win the Shanghai Masters final?
We make Rafael Jodar a narrow favourite at 53% against 47% for Alejandro Davidovich Fokina, mainly because he closed out Daniil Medvedev 2-0 in the semi-final while Davidovich Fokina needed three sets to beat Alexander Zverev.
How many sets will the final last?
We project a 2-1 scoreline in Jodar's favour and give roughly a 57% chance that the match goes to a deciding set, since both players have been involved in several three-setters this week.
Will both players win at least one set?
In a best-of-three match that is the same thing as a decider, and we rate it at around 57% - the levels are close enough that a straight-sets win either way would be a mild surprise.
Head to Head
No head-to-head record between Davidovich Fokina and Jodar is available in our data for this match, so there is no previous meeting to lean on. That makes current form the main guide: Davidovich Fokina has won four of his last five, all but one of them in three sets, while Jodar has won four straight since an early-October defeat to Adolfo Daniel Vallejo. Neither man has an established pattern to exploit, which adds to the unpredictability of the final.
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Alejandro Davidovich Fokina2 : 1Rafael Jodar