Novak Djokovic vs Alex De Minaur Prediction China Open - Beijing · Oct 6, 2026

Analysis

Djokovic has strung four wins together in Beijing, beating Nuno Borges 2-0, surviving Bu Yunchaokete 2-1 and turning around a 2-1 win over Alexander Zverev, before his semifinal against Daniil Medvedev was settled after a single set. De Minaur has been even tidier, winning all five of his listed matches and conceding only single sets to Andrey Rublev and Quentin Halys, with two comfortable 2-0 wins over Mariano Navone and a semifinal against Hubert Hurkacz that also ended after one set. Stylistically this is Djokovic's depth, return position and ability to redirect pace against De Minaur's footspeed and relentless baseline coverage, and on a medium-paced hard court the Australian will get plenty of balls back but needs free points on serve to avoid losing the neutral exchanges. Djokovic's decision-making at the business end of finals is the clearest edge in the matchup, and his only recent setback came in a five-set defeat to Navone in late August. De Minaur is quick enough and fresh enough to steal a set, so we favour Djokovic but expect him to be made to work for it.