Jelena Ostapenko vs Elise Mertens Prediction China Open - Beijing · Oct 5, 2026

Analysis

Ostapenko walks into the third round off a clean 2-0 win over Paula Badosa on 3 October, the kind of result that suggests her flat, first-strike baseline game is timing the ball well on Beijing's quick hard courts. Mertens needed three sets the same day, edging Katie Volynets 2-1, so she has more mileage in her legs but also fresh proof that she can problem-solve when the rhythm is not there. The stylistic clash is the whole match: Ostapenko wants to end rallies inside three shots, while Mertens absorbs pace, serves intelligently and asks her opponent to hit one more ball. Both have shown dips in the past few weeks - Ostapenko lost 0-2 to Taylah Preston on 24 September and Mertens 0-2 to Maja Chwalinska on 25 September - which underlines how swing-prone each one's level can be. Fast conditions tilt the margin slightly towards the bigger hitter, so Ostapenko is a narrow favourite, though a tight opening set with Mertens holding serve comfortably would turn this into a coin flip very quickly. We lean to Ostapenko in straight sets, with genuine respect for the three-set scenario.