Cori Gauff vs Elise Mertens Prediction China Open - Beijing · Oct 7, 2026

Analysis

Gauff arrives in the fourth round in good rhythm, having dropped only one set in Beijing on her way through Maria Camila Osorio Serrano (2-1) and Xinran Sun (2-0). Her late-season form also includes a 2-1 win over Mirra Andreeva and a straight-sets victory over Iva Jovic, with the only recent loss coming against Elena Rybakina in three sets. Mertens is also playing well and has shown real competitive steel this week, edging Jelena Ostapenko 2-1 and Katie Volynets 2-1, though both of those required deciding sets and plenty of court time. Stylistically this is a mismatch of weapons: Gauff's serve speed and forehand depth on a medium-paced hard court give her the bigger first strike, while Mertens relies on clean ball-striking, variety and the backhand down the line to stretch rallies. Mertens' route to breaking that pattern is to keep the points short on her own serve and drag Gauff into neutral exchanges, which has worked for her against bigger hitters before. The expectation is a Gauff win, but the margin is less certain than the outcome given how often Mertens turns matches into three-set attrition.