Alex De Minaur vs Hubert Hurkacz Prediction China Open - Beijing · Oct 5, 2026

Analysis

Both men arrive in the Beijing semi-final playing their best tennis of the week: De Minaur came through Andrey Rublev 2-1 on 4 October after a 2-1 win over Quentin Halys and two straight-sets wins over Mariano Navone, while Hurkacz dismissed Karen Khachanov 2-0 the same day having earlier beaten Arthur Gea 2-1 and Learner Tien 2-1 twice. The stylistic clash is the whole match: Hurkacz's serve is one of the most punishing on a quick hard court and his cheap points give him free holds, but De Minaur is among the very best returners and movers in the game and thrives on exactly this kind of fast, low-bouncing surface. De Minaur's path has been marginally tougher and his legs looked fine against Rublev, which is why he gets the slight edge. Hurkacz's one stumble of the run, a 0-2 loss to Alejandro Davidovich Fokina on 29 September, hints that his level can dip when the first-serve percentage drops. Expect long holds, tiebreak-flavoured sets and a genuine chance of a decider.